Research

Testing common trading claims with data · 11 posts

• The 90% Rule for the Opening 18-Bar Range Looks More Like 81.2%

  Research2026-09-27

  Al Brooks says the high or low of the first 18 bars ends up as the high or low of the day about 90% of the time. I tested it on 3,924 trading days of cleaned ES data from 2010 to 2026. The result: 81.2%. It takes until bar 28 (11:50) to reach 90%.

  81.2%high or low of day in by bar 18

• Breaking the Overnight High or Low: 94.4% of Days Break at Least One Side

  Research2026-09-24

  A backtest on 3,878 ES trading days from 2010 to 2026 with a complete overnight session: does today's RTH break the overnight (Globex) high or low? 94.4% of days break at least one side, and both sides break more than twice as often as with the prior day's range.

  94.4%break at least one side of the overnight range

• How Far Does ES Move in a Day? The Median Intraday Range Over 16 Years Is 0.90%

  Research2026-09-21

  Using 3,924 trading days of cleaned ES data from 2010 to 2026, I looked at the distribution of the RTH range (high minus low, divided by the open) and how it changes year by year. A typical day moves 0.90%, and half of all days fall between 0.62% and 1.34%.

  0.90%median intraday range