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Two Bull Hours at the Open: The Day Closes Up 84.5% of the Time, but Buying Then Pays Off Only 56%

Contents
  1. First two 60-minute bars both bull: the day closes up 84.5% of the time
  2. Why buying then pays off only 56% of the time
  3. Two more useful numbers
  4. Six bull hours in a row: no big selloff into the close
  5. Shorter bars
  6. Definition and how to reproduce it
  7. Limitations

Bottom line: when the first two 60-minute ES RTH bars (09:30–11:30) both close up, the day closes up 84.5% of the time; when both close down, the day closes down 79.9% of the time. This kind of open happens about every other day.

But most of that high win rate is already “spent”: buying at the close of the second bar (11:30), you’re still ahead at the close only 56.3% of the time, about the same as buying on any random day.

How I use it: after two bull hours at the open, the two numbers that matter more are these: the low of the day is already in 77.5% of the time, and price makes a new high later 82.0% of the time. That favors buying a pullback with a stop below the day’s low, rather than chasing at 11:30.

When I traded breakouts, I used to see a string of bull bars at the open and couldn’t wait to get in. I’d buy almost in a panic, completely gripped by FOMO. And then, more often than not, I’d find I had bought the top.

Al Brooks often says that in a strong trend you can buy the close. So does a string of bull bars at the open count as that kind of trend? When is it buying the close with the trend, and when is it just chasing?

After a string of bull bars at the open, buying at the close of bar 12 meant buying near the high of the day

5-minute chart, 2026-10-21. From bar 4 on, almost every bar closed up, and the first 60-minute bar closed strong. Buying at the close of bar 12 (10:30, which is also the close of the first 60-minute bar) meant buying near the high of the day: after a few sideways bars, bar 21, a big bear bar, dropped straight back below the moving average, and price never got back to the entry that day.

To answer that question, I used ES data from 2010 to 2026 to see how the day closes after consecutive same-color bars at the open. I focused on the 60-minute chart, and also looked at how many same-color bars in a row appear at the open on the 5, 15 and 30-minute charts.

2010–2026 · first 2 60-minute bars both bull, the day closes up

84.5%

Happens on 1,062 days (27.1%) · but the close is above bar 2's close only 56.3%

After the first N bars are all the same colorX axis: how many opening bars in a row. Points with fewer than 20 days are hollow; dashed line: the rate across all days.

Day closes upClose above the signal closeLow of day already inNew high later
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 123456 All days close up 54.6%

Bull bar = close > open, bear bar = close < open. Day closes up = RTH close > RTH open. Signal close = close of bar N, the earliest price you could enter at after seeing the signal. Low of day already in = the day's low is inside the first N bars. New high later = some bar after bar N trades above the first N bars' high. Hover (or tap) the chart to see the numbers.

First two 60-minute bars both bull: the day closes up 84.5% of the time

First two 60-minute barsBoth bullBoth bear
How often1,062 days (27.1%)874 days (22.3%)
Day closes the same color84.5%79.9%
Close beyond bar 2’s close56.3%45.7%
Opposite extreme already in77.5%74.9%
New high (low) later82.0%75.1%

Why buying then pays off only 56% of the time

“The day closes up” compares the close with the open. By 11:30 the two bull bars are already done, the day is probably up a fair amount already, and it counts as an up day as long as the close doesn’t fall back below the open. So most of that 84.5% has already happened.

The question you can actually trade is: if you enter at 11:30 after seeing the signal, can you still make money from there to the close?

So two same-color hours at the open tell you “which side the day will probably close on”, not “how much is left to make if you get in now”.

Two more useful numbers

After two bull hours at the open:

The matching numbers for two bear bars are 74.9% and 75.1%, a little weaker than for bull bars.

Six bull hours in a row: no big selloff into the close

On the 60-minute chart, you’ll see that “new high later” drops from 84.4% at bar 5 to 66.7% at bar 6. It looks as if everyone is dumping their longs into the close, but the data says otherwise:

Shorter bars

On the 5, 15 and 30-minute charts, consecutive same-color bars at the open are a much weaker signal:

First N bars all bullDay closes up
5 minutes × 2 bars (to 9:40)67.1%
15 minutes × 2 bars (to 10:00)72.9%
30 minutes × 2 bars (to 10:30)78.1%
60 minutes × 2 bars (to 11:30)84.5%
60 minutes × 3 bars (to 12:30)93.6%

The pattern is simple: the more time the signal uses up, the higher “the day closes up” goes, but the less time and room are left for you. And “close above the signal close”, for bull combinations with more than 100 days, stays between 51% and 61%; none of them clearly beats “buying on any random day”.

Definition and how to reproduce it

Consecutive same-color bars at the open

  • Data: cleaned 1-minute ES bars, 2010-06 to 2026-09, 3,924 trading days. See how I cleaned it.
  • RTH: 09:30–16:15 US Eastern. The 5, 15, 30 and 60-minute bars all start at 09:30, and a short last bar still counts (the last 60-minute bar is 15:30–16:15).
  • Bull / bear bars: close > open is a bull bar, close < open is a bear bar; equal counts as neither.
  • Signal: the first N bars of the day are all bull bars (or all bear bars).
  • The day closes up: RTH close > RTH open, i.e. the daily bar is a bull bar.
  • Close above the signal close: RTH close > bar N’s close.
  • Low of the day already in: the day’s RTH low is inside the first N bars.
  • New high later: after bar N, some bar’s high is above the highest high of the first N bars.

Limitations


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